When September Ends
Good morning and Happy Tuesday!
We are back in business (with a new name!) after a hopelessly busy summer hiatus that saw Forward Horizon Group conduct field operations and research in Ukraine, Poland, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Thailand. While you can expect a post later this week that details those operations and how we’re operating on the cutting edge of the shifting global security order, today we’re going to jump back into the top issues and news items of the day - the wave-tops of global security, economic, and technology issues driving an increasingly uncertain future.
The American Election
It’s 61 days and a wake-up until the 2024 US Elections, which, needless to say, have been completely turned on their head since the last edition of this note. As foremost amongst the global powers, elections in the US have effects that ripple around the world. Labor Day stands as the starting gun for the home stretch of the election and the Harris/Walz and Trump/Vance tickets will be hitting the ground in earnest.
Quick Links
Where the polling between Trump & Harris stands on Labor Day - Politico
More voters, especially women, now say abortion is their top issue - New York Times
Harris opposes sale of US Steel to Japan’s Nippon Steel - Semafor
Opinion: The Americans who long for Caesar - Persuasion Magazine
China and the World
China’s rise to global superpower status continues to be a top driver of broader shifts in the geopolitical order. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan just wrapped up a three day stint of meetings in Beijing. Among the top items on the agenda were organizing a Biden-Xi phone call before the end of the outgoing US President’s term, as well as upcoming visit to China by John Podesta, the senior US advisor for international climate policy.
“Beijing signaled that it is open to more high-level U.S.-China communications in order to maintain stable ties. That will include video calls between U.S. and Chinese Indo-Pacific military commanders, and a second meeting of the U.S.-China intergovernmental dialogue on artificial intelligence “at an appropriate time,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry statement said.” - Politico
Quick Links
Key takeaways from China’s Third Plenum 2024 - Atlantic Council
Business are already girding for the next phase of the US-China Trade War - New York Times
The Pentagon is planning a drone ‘hellscape’ to defend Taiwan - Wired
Chinese Unconventional Threats in the Era of Great Power Competition - Irregular Warfare Institute
Ukraine
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is now halfway into it’s third year with no sign of ending in sight. The Ukrainian sustained incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast has surprised analysts and widened the aperture for potential outcomes surrounding a negotiated peace to end the conflict, but in the meantime the war rages on.
Russian forces are preparing for an assault on Pokrovsk, a key logistics and staging hub for Ukrainian military forces in Eastern Ukraine, as Pokrovsk’s population of roughly 60,000 civilians evacuates to the west. Ukraine continues it’s efforts to convince the US and other allies to allow them to use the weapons they provide to strike inside of Russia - a position that has been anathema up until now.
Quick Links
With Russia on it’s doorstep, a Ukrainian town packs its bags - New York Times
Ukraine allies expect Iran to ship missiles to Russia imminently - Bloomberg
More Americans want the US to stay the course in Ukraine as long as it takes - Brookings
The Israel-Hamas War
Negotiations over a ceasefire continue to stick over the fate of the Philidelphi Corridor, a narrow strip of land on the border between Gaza and Egypt, which Netanyahu maintains is necessary for the IDF to control in order to prevent Hamas smuggling of weapons into Gaza.
The IDF recovered the bodies of six hostages over the weekend, including 23 year old Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin, whose parents recently spoke at the Democratic National Convention.
Hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets over the weekend to protest the government’s failure to secure a ceasefire and the release of the hostages in Gaza, fueled in part by the recovery of the dead hostages mentioned above. Israel’s largest labor Union, Histadrut, called for a general strike beginning Monday, September 2nd.
Quick Links
Israelis go on strike after mass protests over hostages in Gaza - Semafor
Biden is considering presenting final Gaza deal proposal within days - Axios
Interest Rate Cuts
Driven by falling inflation and softening consumer demand, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a US interest rate cut for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week.
Quick Links
Jackson Hole and the speed of Fed easing - David Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management
Meet the megadonors pumping millions into the 2024 election - Washington Post
Only 17% of consumers say its a good time to buy a home - Housing Notes
Technology Odds & Ends
Iranian backed group steps up phishing campaigns against Israel, US - Google Threat Analysis Group
Hacking blind spot: States struggle to vet coders of election software - Politico Cybersecurity
Countering deepfakes: We need to forecast AI threats - Australian Strategic Policy Institute
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